Football statistics, market context, and model-signal basics.
OriginStats is a football analytics workspace for people who want fixtures, live scores, market movement, market medians, and model signals in one place. It helps you compare matches faster and understand the information behind each fixture before you decide what deserves deeper review.
The fixtures page gives you a daily view of football matches with status filters, date navigation, team and league search, live states, scores, and market context. Use it as a starting point to scan the slate, open match details, and shortlist the fixtures you want to analyse more carefully.
Quick links for the main football data views:
OriginStats provides football statistics, AI model context, market snapshots, and settled outcome review. It is built to organise information so users can make their own informed decisions with care.
OriginStats combines match data, league context, available market information, and model outputs to highlight fixtures that stand out statistically. The goal is to help you prioritise the matches worth reviewing.
Useful places to continue your workflow:
Goal Spread is a football market where one team receives a virtual goal advantage or disadvantage before the result is graded. Instead of only choosing home, draw, or away, Goal Spread focuses on whether a team performs better than the market line. Some lines can settle in partial outcomes, which makes the model view more precise than a simple Match Winner outcome.
OriginStats analyses Goal Spread because it is one of the sharpest ways to measure team strength, price movement, and expected performance. It reduces draw noise, handles uneven matchups better, and gives our AI a cleaner way to evaluate whether the market line reflects the data. Goal Spread also tends to keep listed signals in a narrower market range than heavily favoured Match Winner signals; across our displayed AI analysis set, the average listed price is 1.85. That figure describes past listed signals only and does not describe or indicate future signals.
OriginStats is built with a dedicated Goal Spread workflow, which is less common than basic Match Winner tools. The advantage is focus: our models do not just ask which side rates higher, they ask whether the line, market movement, league context, and model probability all agree.
That is difficult to do well. Goal Spread modelling has to handle moving lines, quarter-goal grading, provider variation, live state changes, league quality, market liquidity, returns, and partial settlements. Those details are why many analysis tools avoid it, and why we treat it as our core strength.
The model studies historical match outcomes, league strength, market medians, Goal Spread lines, market movement, and settled signal performance. It compares the model probability with the available market value, then filters out matches where the confidence, pricing, or market agreement is not strong enough.
The design goal is selectivity. OriginStats is built to show fewer, higher-confidence signals instead of filling the page with low-confidence signals. When the data, the line, and the market movement agree, the model can surface a match that deserves closer review.
For Goal Spread, settled outcome rate and average market price should be read together. At an average listed price of 1.85, the neutral reference rate is about 54.1% before returns, partial settlements, fees, and price changes. A higher historical settled outcome rate at that average price describes how a past signal set compares with that neutral reference; it does not indicate future performance.
OriginStats uses these figures as historical research context only. Results vary by market, date range, data availability, and settlement rules.
Full Access is the single OriginStats plan, and you choose how you pay. Monthly is $29.99/month, currently $19.99/month with no end date. Yearly is $299.99/year, currently $199.99 — that works out at $16.67/month and saves 17% against paying monthly. Either way you get the full AI Match Insights signal set — Basic, Pro, and Advanced Match Winner and Goal Spread signals — plus full 30-day signal history. Membership also gives you 30 Origin Coins at every daily check-in, two free campaign unlocks a day with both OriginStats AI accounts included, 15% off every other unlock, and a member-only shelf in the Rewards shop.
It is free to activate during the current promotion, with no credit card required. Standard pricing returns after the promotional period ends.
No — the free access promotion is not running. Full Access is $19.99 a month, or $199.99 a year, which works out at $16.67 a month and saves 17% against paying monthly.
New members start with a free trial — one per account. The pricing page always shows what applies today, including how long the trial runs.
Start with the fixtures list, filter by status or date, search for teams or leagues, then compare the match context with the daily signal views. Subscribers can access deeper analysis and review more of the historical signal set, which is useful for understanding how the model has behaved over time.
Treat the data as research support. OriginStats is an informational analytics service only and does not process payments tied to match results, provide personal financial advice, or assure outcomes. The service is intended for adults aged 18 and over, where lawful.
The daily fixture view refreshes around the current match slate, and live matches can update while the page is open. Market signals and settled outcome summaries are published as part of the daily analysis workflow, so returning each day gives you a current set of matches to review.
Yes. OriginStats is for adults aged 18 and over, where lawful. Your date of birth is asked when you create an account, and once before your first reward redemption if it is not already on file.
A member who ranks highly in a FantasyCup competition can be promoted to Expert. Experts price their analysis by the day or by the match, and other members unlock it with Origin Coins.
Origin Coins are what you spend to unlock an Expert's analysis. Rewards are what you win in the FantasyCup and spend in the OriginStats shop.
Unlock a whole day or a single match with Origin Coins. Separately, both OriginStats AI accounts are included at no cost for subscribers, and every reader gets free unlocks in the free campaign — one a day with no check-in needed, two a day for subscribers — on any expert who has joined. The daily ones do not carry over to the next day; checking in 7 days in a row earns an extra one that is held until you spend it.
No. A settled day is free to read, which is what makes an Expert's public record checkable.
The free FantasyCup runs Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly and Season competitions, plus league-tier boards. Qualification bars and what each one pays are on the rules page.
You win Rewards, which you redeem in the OriginStats shop.
Yes — two years after the end of the month you earned them in.
Referral Coins for both of you, a promotional class of Origin Coins. What your friend sees at email verification is a preview, not a balance that has been issued yet — both sides' Coins become spendable 30 days after your friend's first payment.
Badges recognise the accuracy of your analysis across OriginStats. See the Badges page for how each one is earned and kept.